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T.S Isaac! (updated 3:27pm 8/24)

Posted by shae cohan on August 21, 2012 at 5:35 PM Comments comments (0)

At the time of writing this there where two areas in the Atlantic that could potential have an impact on the United states. The one of most concern, would be Tropical storm Isaac with winds now sustained at 60 MPH and a center pressure of 997 mb and the expected path of Isaac's center is expected to stay south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and make landfall on Saturday in Cuba as a tropical storm. The path of T.S Issac's center after leaving Cuba is forecast to make landfall once again on the Florida Panhandle just East of Pensacola and West of Tallahassee after it intensifies into a Hurricane with winds from 75-100MPH. The Path of T.S Isaac after making landfall is still a uncertainty at this present time. The GFS puts Isaac back into the Atlantic as a hurricane while it also want to intensify Isaac as it travels over the Atlantic just off of the eastern Sea board.


Below is the GFS model run for hour 90 showing T.S. Isaac just off the coast of the Florida Panhandle with wind speed around 45mph.

Models vary with some of them showing a Major hurricane in the next few days. We will continue to update this page as information becomes available on Isaac and any other system so be sure to check back. you can also follow us on Facebook at or Twitter @skytwisters.

You can also visit the NHC for more information here.

Model images from

Severe threat August 16, 2012

Posted by shae cohan on August 16, 2012 at 10:50 AM Comments comments (0)

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms from Central Oklahoma stretching all the way to Michigan. Storms are likely to develop today along a cold front with damaging winds and large hail all possible with storms that develop.


                       DAY 1 Convection outlook                                                                                              Day 1 winds outlook

Most of the slight risk area is going to be primed and very unstable with CAPE values ranging between 2000-3000 J/KG along the cold front. Dew points ahead of the front will range from the upper 60's to the mid 70's allowing storms to have plenty of moister to work.Although there is not a lot of shear today, there should be enough for organized storms and maybe even a isolated supercell or two. Storms should initially start off as isolated or individual cells and as they progress along the front they should merge into one or more lines with damaging wind potential.


CAPE values at 18Z RAP                                                                                                                       Dewpoints at 18Z RAP

We will update this page as updated information becomes available. Check back here or check us out on Facebook at

Severe threat July 11, 2012

Posted by shae cohan on July 12, 2012 at 12:15 AM Comments comments (0)

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated a slight risk for severe thunderstorms over parts of Montana, North and South Dakota, and Wyoming today July 11,2012. The main threat with the storm today will be damaging winds but large hail will be possible in the early stage of storm development as the storms make a slight supercell transition.


Left: Day 1 SPC convection outlook Left: Day 1 prob of damaging winds

There is also a chance for some marginal severe thunderstorm today in Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina where severe hail and a few damaging winds will be possible.

If you live inside an area where severe storm are possible be prepared to get to shelter if severe weather is in your area.

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Severe threat July 10, 2012

Posted by shae cohan on July 10, 2012 at 1:20 PM Comments comments (0)

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today July 10, 2012 over portions of Georgia, North and South Carolina, and Tennessee. Although the severe threat for this area is not to high today the threat for damaging winds and marginally severe hail exists.


Picture to the left: Day one SPC outlook Picture to the right: Day 1 SPC wind probability

The area highlighted above is where the SPC has indicated at least a 15% chance for severe weather (Damaging winds or hail). There is a small chance (but not zero) of severe weather in parts of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Georgia. (See graphic below) where a few Isolated severe storms could produce damaging winds and hail.


Both pictures are representing the SPC day 1 wind probability outlook

To sum everything up if you live inside the slight risk area you should be prepared for storms to be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. The other area could see some isolated storms with damaging winds being the main threat with them.

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Severe threat July 9, 2012

Posted by shae cohan on July 9, 2012 at 6:45 AM Comments comments (0)

Severe thunderstorms threaten parts of the Eastern U.S with the threat of damaging winds and large hail. The image below is the Storm Prediction Center day 1 convection outlook highlighting the greatest threat for severe weather today. The risk area includes the cities of Charlotte and Raleigh and the states of NC, VA and parts of SC and WV.

If you live in the risk area today be prepared for the possibility of severe thunderstorms that are capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.

Be sue to check out our Facebook at or check back here for periodic updates on today's severe threat.

Heightened risk for severe weather today! 6-1-12

Posted by shae cohan on June 2, 2012 at 12:45 AM Comments comments (0)

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued a categorical moderate risk for severe thunderstorms over Southern Pennsylvania, Eastern West Virginia, Northern Virginia, and Maryland. The SPC also has a slight risk surrounding the moderate risk.


The SPC has a 15% tornado risk outlined inside the Moderate. The risk of strong tornadoes is present with any severe storm inside the MDT risk and in the immediate area surrounding the MDT.

If we look at the EHI (Enhanced helicity Index) there is a higher area inside the MDT risk.


0-3 km EHI 18UTC                               Day 1 tornado probability

The main threat today is damaging winds and tornadoes a few which could be strong. There is a 30% area for damaging winds in a large area of the slight and MDT risk area today. The SPC is expecting damaging winds possibly widespread in nature.

Main threats

Moderate risk                                                                          

  1. Tornadoes (Some storng EF3+)
  2. Damaging winds (Could be widespread)
  3. Large hail

Slight risk

  1. Damaging winds
  2. Tornadoes (Isolated strong tornadoes near MDT)
  3. Large hail

Chase day 5/24/12

Posted by shae cohan on May 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM Comments comments (0)


Day 1 convection out look: Left day one categorical left Wind probability bottom Tornado probability

It has been a few weeks since has chased and  is finally at it again today. The conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms with the real threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

The area we were looking at last night has now been upgraded to a moderate risk for damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes. The area most likely to experience severe weather today is most of Wisconsin and parts of Minnesota,Illinois, and Iowa.

We will keep updating the blog about changes in weather and positioning.


Severe threat May 5, 2012

Posted by shae cohan on May 5, 2012 at 6:30 AM Comments comments (0)

The treat exists today for severe thunderstorms over parts of the country and a few could have some big impacts.The main threats today will be large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.


LEFT day 1 convection Outlook Right Day 1 Tornado Outlook Bottom Day 1 Hail outlook

The SPC (Storm Prediction center) has two areas highlighted today for the threat of  severe weather. The first area and the more potent of the two areas is over parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. The second area is over a small area in central Texas.


Looking at the NAM 18UTC weather model we can see there is plenty of energy in the atmosphere today over the two slight risk areas with values ranging from 3000-4500 J/KG in most of the areas highlighted by in the circles. With so much energy available it is not going to take much for storms to fire today in either areas.

The potential is there today for a localized tornado outbreak today over the four corners of Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, and Kansas. Looking at the NAM 21UTC bulk shear today parameters look supportive of sustained supercells over the Northern risk and the threat for supercells over the Sutherlan threat in Texas. We also looked at the 21UTC NAM 0-3 EHI and that showed a high value over Northern Nebraska and South Dakota so the possibility of a localized tornado outbreak is possible with a few strong tornadoes too. There is also the threat for very large hail today over the Northern risk with steep lapse rates and and strong Bulk shear to help sustain updrafts in storms.


LEFT NAM 21UTC Bulk Shear                                                            Right NAM 21UTC EHI

MAIN threats today May 5, 2012

  • Large hail over all risk area but enhanced risk over the Northern area for very large hail.
  • Damaging winds
  • Tornadoes but enhanced over the Northern area with a few strong tornadoes.

BE sure to listen to local media and weather radios for watches and warnings and follow us on Facebook at or on twitter @skytwisters

May the fourth be with you. Severe weather threat May 4 , 2012

Posted by shae cohan on May 4, 2012 at 3:15 PM Comments comments (0)

The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms over a large area of the Unuted states today.The main main focus will be later this afternoon and evening over Nebraska, Iowas, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Areas that are under the slight risk all have the threat of Large hail and damaging winds with any storm that develops.

Day 1 Convection Outlook

There are many areas today across the country that can see some severe weather. All areas highlighted in the slight risk can see Large hail an damaging winds.A even greater risk is outlined by the SPC for very large hail and damaging winds over parts of Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, and Texas. There is also a chance for a few tornadoes but the greatest threat area is again over Iowa, Nebraska,and Missouri.







Day 1 hail outlook Day 1 tornado outlook

Severe threat May 3, 2012

Posted by shae cohan on May 3, 2012 at 10:25 AM Comments comments (0)

Looks like an active week with the threat of severe weather all the way into Sunday. Today there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, and Kansas.

The main threats today will be damaging winds and large hail but a few tornadoes will be possible. The SPC has a 30% risk for damaging winds for areas inside the slight risk and a 30% hatched area (indicating a higher chance) for large hail and a 5% Tornado over Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas.


Day 1 tornado outlook                                                                  Day 1 hail outlook

                                                                                                               Day 1 wind outlook

 Main threats Damaging winds, Large hail, and a few tornadoes.

Be sure to check back for more updates and be sure to listen to NOAA weather radio for information on watches and warning.


NWS Forecast

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Day 1 Outlook


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